The NFL bye week can be a factor many recreational gamers don’t pay enough focus to. In the event you consider a novice sports bettor, so you spot the particular betting line which includes you quickly visiting Google News as well as your favorite sports stat site to see if a player is injured, don’t forget also to notice in the event that team’s opponent is coming off a bye. For all those advanced sports bettors battling with the bye week, I’ll cover some higher level research and insights about the bye on this page. Just before to that, I’ll address some general points for anybody uncertain just what a bye week is, or which weeks teams have byes.
When you probably know, sbobet in thailand includes each team playing 16 games. Back in 1990, the league changed to a 17 week season so that you can profit more from television advertising. This left each team having a single week off at some point in the season referred to as a bye week. The bye week was once random spanning on the entire season, but in 2004 to create a more uniform schedule for the playoff race, the format was changed. The way it operates is now bye weeks always fall between weeks 4 and 10. As being a sports bettor, you’ll need to pay extra attention during weeks 5-11 for teams coming off a bye, since they have the advantage of additional time to relax, get healthy, practice and prepare.
While we won’t include this in our analysis, one other area recreational bettors need to pay attention to is Thursday games. Starting week 10 of the NFL season you will find a single Thursday night game, and so on Thanksgiving the two main additional Thursday day games. This means that on Thursday, teams will often be playing on short rest, which is usually the case for both teams; therefore it is not something to concern yourself with. Where it might be an issue is definitely the following week. Here, teams are coming off added rest and may achieve a similar benefit to the one they have from the bye week. Make certain when coming up with bets in the NFL to pay for attention both to teams coming away from the bye, and to teams coming off a Thursday game.
Given that this isn’t an article about statistical handicapping models, a topic which 95% of readers might find too advanced, I won’t go into it in considerably more detail than to create a single statement then support it. That statement: the higher a team is, the more they gain benefit from the bye week. This may not be a theory, but something well quantified via statistical analysis the best odds makers are familiar with. To provide you with a compact clue, the modifier for teams coming off a bye is actually a multiplier depending on power rankings. All teams take advantage of the bye week, but just how much they benefit is proportional to how good of your team they can be.
In case the above statement is at all confusing, don’t sweat it. I’ll share some fundamental stats regarding how well teams coming away from the bye week have fared that will help you understand the lines just a little better.
Over the four latest seasons (2007-2010), in games where just one single team is arriving from the bye, the group coming off of the bye has a record of 65-54-1 straight up, and 61-44-5 from the spread.
Now, if you’re contemplating betting teams coming off of the bye since the past 4 years they’ve covered 58.1% of times, read my article around the current betting market. A system including that could have worked in 2006; but, more inclined than not, this trend won’t continue. The reason being today NFL betting line is a lot more efficient, as well as the market will almost certainly correct itself.
The standard ATS data is nice, however it doesn’t tell us much unless we break it down further. After doing so, a far more interesting trend appears. Using the same 110 game sample, teams coming off of the bye week that are favored have got a record of 48-12 straight up and 36-20-4 ATS, while underdogs coming off the bye have got a record of 17-32-1 straight up and 25-24-1 ATS.
The sample size on road favorites is rather small, but 15-1-2 against the spread is massively impressive, nonetheless. To discuss a remote stat out of a post I wrote several dexmpky72 back, from 1990 to 2008 (across a 150 game sample size), road favored teams coming off a bye week covered the spread nearly 70% of times.
To return to and get more accurate 4 year numbers for all favorites coming off of the bye, you can find 9 games missing in the 110 sample size I used. This is because 9 times since 2007 there are games where both teams were coming away from the bye. (32×4=128), I got the 110 sample size because 18 of your byes were not highly relevant to opening discussion.
The information here strongly supports that good teams enjoy the bye more than the current market is providing them with credit for. I say that because only good teams are favored on the highway within the NFL. Using just road favorites is quirky, however, and a few might contemplate it “data mining”, even though this trend is well founded when dating back to much beyond 2007. If we’re going to really consider this thorough, though, we need to have a look at subsets of all favorites disregarding home and away, as that’s built in the spread.